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Author: Leslie Arathoon, Vice President of Research
Publication date: November 2007
FORECAST SPOTLIGHT
Pyramid Research recently released its Q3 2007 Mobile Demand and Mobile Data Forecasts for more than 90 markets globally. Based on continued strong growth in emerging markets, we have raised our year-end 2007 expectation for mobile subscriptions from 3.26bn in the Q2 2007 release of our forecast to 3.3bn in our latest release. The result is a 1% increase in our expectation for global mobile penetration at the end of 2007, from 50% previously to 51% in our Q3 2007 release. Per our latest forecast release, we expect mobile operators to generate a combined US$760bn in 2007, up from $669bn in 2006. Going forward, we expect global mobile penetration to top 69% in 2012, with 4.7bn subscribers generating $1 trillion in service revenue for operators worldwide.
ANALYSIS SUMMARY
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Between 2007 and 2012, the number of mobile subscriptions will increase from 3.3bn to 4.7bn, a compounded annual growth rate of 7.5%. Africa and the Middle East as well as Asia will account for the biggest subscriber gains, while Western and Eastern Europe will see its share of the global subscriber base shrink.
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By 2012, more than two-thirds of the world’s population will have a mobile subscription, up from half in 2007 and only a third in 2005.
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Of the 20 fastest-growing markets in the world, all but three come from either Africa or Latin America.
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