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   Predictions Weekly

July 20, 2007   

Crisis at Nitel and MTel: opportunity or pitfall for Vodacom and others?

Tariff commoditization and differentiation vs. marketing simplification in mobile services

Digicel Comes to Guatemala, but Existing Players May Be Preparing a Warm "Welcome"
Editor's Corner: Emerging Markets Handset Webinar
Pyramid Product Updates: Reports, Perspectives, Forecasts
Telecom Roundup - Powered by ITI


The Global Mobile Capex Index

Can Video On Demand Save IPTV
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Pyramid Spotlight

Crisis at Nitel and MTel: opportunity or pitfall for Vodacom and others?
By Juliano Torii, Analyst

On June 15, 2007, Vodacom was reported to be studying the acquisition of MTel, which is the mobile arm of Nitel, the recently privatized Nigerian fixed-line incumbent. In the past few months, that privatization, which had seemed promising, turned into a nightmare as BT terminated a technical services agreement with Nitel due to corporate governance and liquidity issues, and as Transcorp, which holds a controlling stake in Nitel, had an IPO widely seen as disappointing.

The crisis offers opportunities as well as risks for interested acquirers and current competitors. Legal segregation of assets as well as transactions is paramount in order to protect parties against a potential implosion of the Nitel-MTel group.
Read the full article

Pyramid Prediction: The crisis offers opportunities as well as risks for interested acquirers and current competitors. Legal segregation of assets as well as transactions is paramount in order to protect parties against a potential implosion of the Nitel-MTel group. Don’t count on a government bailout, but remember that it always has the final say, especially in telecommunications.
Read the full article

 

Pyramid Premium Analysis

Tariff commoditization and differentiation vs. marketing simplification in mobile services: Yoigo and Coop show the way
After launching services in December 2006, 3G-only Spanish network operator Yoigo managed to attract 101,000 clients during the fours months to the end of 1Q2007, with 27,000 net gains through mobile number portability in the first quarter. On June 25, 2007, Coop announced that it had added more than 30,000 subscribers, or 1,500 a day, since launching the first MVNO service in the Italian market three weeks before, on June 4. Of these, 35% came through mobile number portability. Read the full article

Pyramid Prediction: Behind these success stories lie different business models but a common value proposition: tariff simplification. Traditional tariff differentiation has been employed to slow down the inevitable commoditization process of the mobile market. But the effectiveness of tariff differentiation is decreasing, especially once the Pandora’s box of price comparability is open. Operators must adapt their marketing structures to the new reality and seek avenues of differentiation outside the handset/content paradigm, where value inevitably leaks away to patent or copyright owners.  Read the full article


Digicel Comes to Guatemala, but Existing Players May Be Preparing a Warm "Welcome"
On June 27, Bermuda-based Digicel announced it will start operations in Guatemala in the next few months, after regulator SIT gave the company one year to begin offering services. Digicel absorbed Digicel Holdings, which operated in El Salvador and had a GSM mobile license for Guatemala.

The market in Guatemala is one of the most competitive in Central America, and Digicel may face tough competition from established providers: America Móvil (Claro), Telefónica (Movistar), and Millicom (Tigo). This already fierce war gives Guatemala one of the lowest average revenues per prepaid subscriber (ARPS) in Central America, at $10.13 in 2006.
Read the full article

Pyramid Prediction: With a new player entering the market, we believe the competition will become even more intense, but it will accelerate mobile penetration as voice ARPS keeps declining. Pyramid Research believes this new environment will stimulate operators to offer new value-added services and specific segmented proposals.   Read the full article
 

Pyramid Research Product Updates:

Reports:
Can Video On Demand Save IPTV?
The Global Mobile Capex Index

Perspectives:
iPhone Calling: How Apple Is Changing Handset, MNO, and Software Dynamics
Why Telefònica O2 Is Causing a Stir in the Slovakian Mobile Market
Broadband to Boom in South Africa

Analyst Insight:
Is There Value in MVNOs? Charting MVNO NPVs

Forecasts:
Bolivia Fixed Operator Market Share Forecast
China Fixed Forcast
 
Pyramid Telecom Roundup - Powered by ITI Digest!*

Tiscali to acquire Pipex's Broadband and Voice dDvision for UK£210 million
Tiscali SpA and Pipex Communications plc have entered into an agreement for the acquisition of the Broadband and Voice division of Pipex by Tiscali UK Holdings Limited (Tiscali UK). The enterprise value agreed for the acquisition is UK£210 million. The final equity value, which will be determined at closing, is subject to adjustment for net debt position and the level of working capital. The acquisition is subject to the approval of Pipex’s shareholders and clearance by the UK Office of Fair Trading.
Read the full article in ITI Digest


Reliance Communications awards Huawei all-IP NGN contract
Reliance Communications Ltd (RCOM) has announced the award of a network expansion contract, worth over US$200 million, to Huawei Technologies. The current network expansion undertaken by RCOM is the largest wireless network expansion undertaken by any operator across the world.
Read the full article in ITI Digest


ictQATAR issues mobile licence application procedures

The Supreme Council for Information and Communications Technology (ictQATAR) has published on its website the 44-page document issued to 12 pre-qualified candidates for the second mobile telecommunications licence in Qatar.
Read the full article in ITI Digest


Nortel receives contract extension from T-Mobile USA to deliver mobile services

T-Mobile USA Inc and Nortel Networks Corp have signed a US$150 million multi-year extension to their contract to deliver mobile voice and data services. T-Mobile USA serves 26 million wireless subscribers across the US and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of T-Mobile International AG & Co. KG, the mobile arm of Deutsche Telekom.
Read the full article in ITI Digest


Alcatel-Lucent and SHD sign contract to deploy first next-generation WiMAX network in France

Alcatel-Lucent and Société du Haut Débit (SHD), a corporate joint venture between Société Française du Radiotéléphone (SFR) and Neuf Cegetel, have signed a two-year contract for the supply and installation of the first next-generation WiMAX network in France, using equipment conforming to the 802.16e-2005 standard.
Read the full article in ITI Digest


Ericsson signs first GPON contract in Europe with CYTA in Cyprus

Ericsson AB and Cyprus Telecommunications Authority (CYTA), the leading operator in Cyprus, have signed a contract for a fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) network based on Ericsson's Gigabit Passive Optical Network (GPON) solution.
Read the full article in ITI Digest


NTT DoCoMo to support AT&T's 3G network deployment in Hawaii

NTT DoCoMo has reached an agreement with the wireless unit of AT&T Inc, the largest mobile operator in the US, under which DoCoMo will provide technical and financial support of up to US$24 million for the deployment of AT&T's 3G mobile phone network in the US state of Hawaii.
Read the full article in ITI Digest

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© 2007 Pyramid Research, 58 Charles Street, Cambridge, MA 02141



 Research Reports
  Market Positioning and Operator Strategies for IPTV
  WiMAX Business Models
  The Next Billion
  From Triple Play to Quad Play
  Rethinking MVNO and MVNE Economics
  Can Video On Demand Save IPTV?
  The Global Mobile Capex Index
 
 Market Forecasts
  Convergence
  Fixed Operator Marketshare
  Mobile Operator KPI
  Mobile Data
  Fixed and Mobile Operator Spending
  Media