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Premium Perspective
Global MNO Consolidation Counterbalanced by New Operators at Local Level
Analysts: Adam Leamon, Leslie Arathoon
By year-end 2007, we expect there to be 19 more mobile operators than there were at year-end 2006. Much of this growth is set to occur in Africa and the Middle East, where we anticipate a net addition of 10 operators during 2007 and a 28.7% increase in mobile subscriptions. The emergence of new market players may come as a surprise to some, since recent mega-mergers and the development of multinational, pan-regional players has helped foster a widespread sentiment of global consolidation in the industry.
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Pyramid Prediction: We believe that despite trends toward consolidation at the regional and global levels, the mobile telephony industry has actually become more competitive and has experienced a slight dilution in the market shares of its major players. Because the establishment of new operators has accelerated, and as developing nations, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, deregulate, we see this trend continuing globally.
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Pyramid Premium Analysis
Does Vodafone’s WiMAX move mean a departure from LTE?
Vodafone captured headlines when it became a principal member of the WiMAX Forum in early August. Much to the joy of the WiMAX community, the operator emphasized its technology-neutral stance and interest in WiMAX as well as LTE as part of its next-generation network strategy. Vodafone identified LTE and WiMAX as "the two future candidates that will meet the future requirements of 50 Mbps and more.†Just a year ago, many assumed that the GSM operators were inherently committed to LTE. No longer is that the case.
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Pyramid Prediction: With operators present in different markets and looking for new revenue sources, there is no “one-size-fits-all†technology, but the wrong technology can set an operator back years. In catering to the needs of different markets and customer segments, operator networks will comprise diverse access technologies, each optimized for certain geographies, demographics, and services.
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Convergence, Content, and Fiber to Drive Consolidation in France
Jacques Veyrat, CEO of Neuf Cegetel, recently said he expected to see further consolidation in the French market. His company has become the second-largest broadband service provider; following acquisitions of AOL France and Club Internet, it has moved ahead of Free’s Iliad. Despite continued growth in broadband subscriptions, scale is becoming increasingly important as competitive factors such as convergence, higher speeds (i.e., fiber), content and services require further investment.
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Pyramid Prediction: In the view of Pyramid Research, the end-game, driven by technological factors, will result in three significant integrated operators, leaving a number of the smaller operators in question.
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Mobile Broadband Race Heats Up as HSPA and WiMAX Go Head-to-Head in Middle East
In many Middle Eastern markets the availability of broadband is still limited, despite strong demand. This is largely the result of limitations in the fixedline infrastructure, but also to some degree because of a lack of competition. Wireless technologies are enjoying strong growth in the region and are expected to take a significant portion of the market.
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Pyramid Prediction: Pyramid Research forecasts that fixed-line broadband technologies such as DSL will retain most of the market, but HSPA will be the technology of choice for firsttime broadband subscribers. WiMAX will also find increasing success, particularly in markets with poor or uncompetitive DSL services, but its growth will be held back by lack of an existing customer base and a shortage of compatible end-user devices.
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Pyramid Research Product Updates:
Research Reports:
Rethinking MVNO and MVNE Economics
The Global Mobile Capex Index
Can Video on Demand Save IPTV?
Market Perspectives:
Will Google Use the 700MHz Spectrum to Drive Mobile Ad Dollars?
Central Asia: Altimo Aims for Leadership
Rethinking Mobile Telecom Business Models: Wind/H3G Tower Sale in Italy and Network Sharing in Spain
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Predictions Weekly reaches more than 25,000 telecommunications and media professionals each week. We differentiate ourselves from newsletters which simply recycle news by analyzing news and events against our own primary research and providing predictions based upon our views.
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