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Pyramid Analyst Insight
Is There Value in MVNOs? Charting MVNO NPVs
By Guy Zibi, Research Director
Recent news about MVNOs has not been encouraging. In the US, Mobile ESPN and Amp’d have been high-profile casualties. Helio will need more money to continue operations, and is now set to receive another round of funding of up to $100m from each of its parents, EarthLink and SK Telecom. The MVNO expects a net loss of $330-360m in 2007, up from $192m in 2006.
There are many other struggling MVNOs that are shielded from scrutiny by their status as private enterprises. Europe has not escaped the bad MVNO news, although it has also experienced some MVNO successes. EasyMobile closed shop in the UK, and French MVNO Ten Mobile recently announced that it has run out of cash and needed further investment to continue its operations. This ghastly streak may lead some to wonder what potential for shareholder value creation, if any, exists in the MVNO model.
Based on the latest data, we estimated the lifetime value of subscribers to various types of MVNOs. This subscriber valuation analysis makes for a number of salient observations. Read the full article
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Pyramid Premium Analysis
iPhone Calling: How Apple Is Changing Handset, MNO, and Software Dynamics
The iPhone launch by Apple and AT&T on June 29th appears to have broken all records in the US. At this time, it appears that over the first three days alone Apple sold at least 500,000 iPhones — unsubsidized, unlike almost all other handsets sold in the US — which is more than the Motorola RAZR sold in its first month. In comparison, the iPhone has generated roughly 200m mentions on the Web, according to Google.
Whether the iPhone turns into a long-term success or not, however, the combination of excitement and fear it has stirred has already caused a number of changes in the mobile communications industry. Most important is that the device has raised user expectations— and not just for that superior design for which Apple is famous. The iPhone has already woken up a large portion of the market to the benefits of a menu-free, multi-touch user interface, to the idea of mobile Internet access, and to the opportunity in software and device integration. Read the full article
Pyramid Prediction: Over the next few years, these raised expectations for interface, Internet, and integration will have profound consequences not just for handset makers, but also for mobile network operators (MNOs) and telecom system and software vendors as well as integrators. For the time being, both MNOs and handset makers will counter the phenomenon most effectively in the enterprise market. Read the full article
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Why Telefónica O2 Is Causing a Stir in the Slovakian Mobile Market
Telefónica O2’s entry into the Slovakian mobile market in February 2007 caused a massive stir. In a market previously served by only two operators, the operator’s strategy turned out to be a winner: it managed to sign up more than 400,000 customers in just over two months. Telefónica O2’s main attraction is an extremely low price for calls within the network, and lower-priced calls to other mobile and fixed networks. In the second quarter of 2007, it also started offering a very flexible postpaid service that is radically different from the ones offered by its competitors, and might attract many more customers. Read the full article
Pyramid Prediction: The duopolistic nature of Slovakia’s mobile market provided Telefónica O2 with a great opportunity to introduce innovative pricing and enter the market with a bang. Slovakia still has plenty of scope for growth, and Telefónica O2 Slovakia has a bright future. Read the full article
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Editor's Note
Pyramid Research Webinar Next Week: Emerging Handset Markets: Billions and Billions to be Served
We are hosting an exclusive webinar next week that will provide highlights from our latest global handset forecast research. Titled Emerging Handset Markets: Billions and Billions to be Served, this client-only event features our Vice President of Research, Ms. Leslie Arathoon. There are two convenient times for this event: July 18th at 3 p.m. UK; 10a.m. US EST and July 19th at 9 a.m. Beijing; 10 a.m. Tokyo.
The 60-minute briefing will cover key areas of the global mobile market, including:
- Main drivers for mobile device growth in both emerging and developed markets.
- Regions and countries that will represent the most exciting opportunities for handset manufacturers over the next five years.
- The evolution of vendor market share at the regional and country level.
- Case studies that demonstrate how vendors are reacting to evolving market dynamics.
- Pyramid Research enhanced forecasts, providing examples of our enhanced country-level market segmentation: by operator, vendor, feature set, technology type, price tier, and feature/form factor.
Attend this webinar to find out why Pyramid Research projects mobile operators globally will add 1.4 billion subscribers by year-end 2012, creating a demand for nearly six billion mobile devices over the next five years.
For information about this webinar, contact Dianne Liu at dliu@pyr.com
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Pyramid Research Product Updates:
Reports:
Can Video On Demand Save IPTV?
The Global Mobile Capex Index
Perspectives:
Broadband to Boom in South Africa
Beyond the 10m Mobile Subscribers: What’s Next for Telefonica in Mexico?
Mobile Market in Honduras: Will the Din of the Battle Finally Sound Loud?
Forecasts:
Africa-Middle East WiMAX Forecast
China Fixed Forcast |
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| Pyramid Telecom Roundup - Powered by ITI Digest!* |
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Thomson and Nokia Siemens Networks to co-operate to offer 3G femto cell home access solution
Thomson and Nokia Siemens Networks have announced their collaboration in developing a pioneering 3G femto cell home access solution. Femto cells are small cellular access points which provide enhanced coverage specifically in residential environments and enable operators to provide fixed-mobile convergence services and others, such as IPTV.
Read the full article in ITI Digest
Alcatel Shanghai Bell and Datang Mobile to expand China Netcom’s TD-SCDMA trial network in Qingdao
Alcatel-Lucent’s Chinese flagship company, Alcatel Shanghai Bell Co Ltd, and Datang Mobile Communications Equipment Co Ltd have announced that they have been tasked to deploy half of the TD-SCDMA expansion project China Network Communications Group Corp (China Netcom) is launching in the coastal city of Qingdao, Shandong Province. Read the full article in ITI Digest
Sweden: PTS issues invitation for wireless broadband auction
Post- och telestyrelsen (PTS) is inviting all interested parties to register for an auction this autumn to assign licences in the 3.6-3.8GHz band. The last date for registration is September 10, 2007.
Read the full article in ITI Digest
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About Predictions Weekly |
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Predictions Weekly reaches more than 25,000 telecommunications and media professionals each week. We differentiate ourselves from newsletters which simply recycle news by analyzing news and events against our own primary research and providing predictions based upon our views.
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