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Analyst Insight
Mobile Data Forecast: Mobile Service Adoption Trend
The mobile market remains one of the most dynamic in the telecommunications industry, having added 1.6bn subscribers between 2001 and 2006. Pyramid Research projects that mobile operators globally will add some 1.4bn subscribers over the next five years, suggesting that by 2012, two out of three people around the world will have a mobile phone. Leslie Arathoon, Vice President of Research, recently hosted a webinar with senior executives from the manufacturing, operator, and financial service communities, sharing some key findings from our mobile demand research. Read the full article
Pyramid Prediction: Pyramid Research projects that mobile operators globally will add some 1.4bn subscribers over the next five years, suggesting that by 2012, two out of three people around the world will have a mobile phone. Read the full article
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Pyramid Premium Analysis
Femtocell Activity Moves Up a Notch as Lab Trials Begin
The buzz around femtocell technology has become louder. In the past month, the mobile markets have exploded with reports of pending trials, new RFPs, and proof-of-concept partnerships. Japan’s Softbank announced that it will conduct trials of femtocell technologies from at least five vendors, but Vodafone has it beat, reportedly evaluating eight or nine solutions. There was also a stir among femto-technology vendors. Read the full article
Pyramid Prediction: As vendors work to solve the remaining femtocell technology issues, the main challenge for the mobile service providers is to work out attractive value propositions for the future services. Read the full article
Is There Value in MVNOs? Charting MVNO Net Present Values
MVNOs such as Helio should generate higher subscriber NPVs, an indication that the higher-end model may ultimately work. Both Helio and Amp’d have ARPU levels above $100 per month, and close to 90% of their subscriber bases are on post-paid plans, which generally keep churn rates down. These metrics are considerably better than a traditional MNO′s. Read the full article
Pyramid Prediction: There is a marked difference in profitability levels between the prepaid and higher-end MVNO models, but both models should prevail. The critical driver for success for either model is a razor-sharp focus on increasing ARPU and lowering costs. Read the full article
Cantv-Movilnet Shifts Strategic Goals from Profits to Social Agenda
In May 2007, Venezuela’s President, Hugo Chavez, announced a change of priorities for the newly nationalized Cantv-Movilnet. One of the most important new measures is that Movilnet will lower its pre-paid voice services tariffs by 20%, expecting to reach 10.5m mobile subscribers by year-end 2008. In addition, Cantv plans to reach 4m residential fixed lines by year-end 2008. Read the full article
Pyramid Prediction: There is a marked difference in profitability levels between the prepaid and higher-end MVNO models, but both models should prevail. The critical driver for success for either model is a razor-sharp focus on increasing ARPU and lowering costs. Read the full article
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Editor's Corner
Pyramid Research Predicts 10 Telecom Trends in the AsiaPacific Region
Leading global telecommunications intelligence firm Pyramid Research, at its second annual AsiaPacific Telecom Summit, presented 10 key trends that will take place in the Asia-Pacific telecom sector in 2008.
More than 120 senior executives from the operator, vendor, and financial services communities in the region attended the AsiaPacific Telecom Summit July 1011, 2007. With two sessions held in Seoul and Tokyo, Pyramid Research presented an overview of developing trends and a strategic analysis of the future of WiMAX in the region.
Senior Analyst Marc Einstein presented the following 10 critical developments in the AsiaPacific region for 2008:
1. Subscriber growth – Indonesia’s broadband market will have the highest growth rate in Asia at 45 percent per year for the next five years, leading the region’s subscriber growth. China, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan will hold 80 percent of Asia’s mobile subscribers in 2012, when regional subscriptions total 2.2bn. Expect higher churn, less revenue, and consolidation in 2008 in developed markets. Low ARPUs will facilitate a transition to IMS.
2. Mobile data – AsiaPacific mobile data revenues will almost triple over the next five years to US$110bn, but increased broadband penetration and flat-rate plans will create significant threats to this growth. The mobile data market will grow, but the spending per user will start to decrease as broadband becomes more available in emerging markets. Read the full Press Release
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Pyramid Research Product Updates:
Reports:
Can Video On Demand Save IPTV?
The Global Mobile Capex Index
The WiMAX Value Proposition
Perspectives:
Crisis at Nitel and MTel: opportunity or pitfall for Vodacom?
Tariff commoditization vs. marketing simplification: Yoigo and Coop show the way
Digicel Comes to Guatemala, Existing Players Preparing a Warm "Welcome"
Forecasts:
Mexico Handset Forecast
India Fixed Operator Market Share Forecast |
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Predictions Weekly reaches more than 25,000 telecommunications and media professionals each week. We differentiate ourselves from newsletters which simply recycle news by analyzing news and events against our own primary research and providing predictions based upon our views.
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