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   Predictions Weekly

September 3, 2007   

Triple Play Will Not Save Declining Margins, But Telcos Still Have to Do It

Comium Côte d’Ivoire’s KoZ, an Ambitious Fourth Entrant Determined to Break the Mold

MVNOs Continue to Proliferate in the Netherlands
Pyramid Research Product Updates
Telecom Roundup - Powered by ITI

Rethinking MVNO and MVNE Economics

The Global Mobile Capex Index
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Featured Insight

Triple Play Will Not Save Declining Margins, But Telcos Still Have to Do It
Guy Zibi, Research Director

The necessity of multi­play bundles is increasingly imposing itself on service providers, all the more because of intense competition. Multi-play appears to have become indispensable. But how much of a difference does multi­play truly make to the bottom line? Given the overall cost of assembling the constituent offerings (either through acquisitions, partnerships, or network upgrades), the answer to this question is hardly straightforward. Evidently, each multi­play initiative needs to be evaluated on its own merit through a net present value analysis.
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Pyramid Prediction: We believe that despite trends toward consolidation at the regional and global levels, the mobile telephony industry has actually become more competitive and has experienced a slight dilution in the market shares of its major players. Because the establishment of new operators has accelerated, and as developing nations, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, deregulate, we see this trend continuing globally.
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Pyramid Premium Analysis

Comium Côte d’Ivoire’s KoZ, an Ambitious Fourth Entrant Determined to Break the Mold
In June 2007, Comium Mobile, a fully owned subsidiary of Comium Group of Luxembourg, launched KoZ as the fourth mobile operator in Côte d’Ivoire. Mobile penetration in the country has been rising quickly, at an average of 43% annually for the past five years, and we expect revenue to grow at a 15% compound annual growth rate for the next five years, to reach $1.8bn by the end of 2012.
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Pyramid Prediction: We believe Comium Mobile can gain up to 21% market share by 2012. This would be achieved only if Comium Mobile can prove successful in prolonging its initial momentum and expanding its outreach efforts without triggering a long-term price war.
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MVNOs Continue to Proliferate in the Netherlands
The highly competitive Dutch mobile market has slowed but continues to attract MVNO startups. There are around 50 MVNOs in a country with four operators and a population of 16m. The number of operators will fall to three, assuming T-Mobile to be successful in merging with Orange Netherlands.
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Pyramid Prediction: Although MVNOs are not expected to continue to increase their share of the market significantly, we do not expect their influence to decline. Vodafone and T-Mobile are reacting by becoming more MVNO-friendly.
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Pyramid Research Product Updates:

Research Reports:
Rethinking MVNO and MVNE Economics
The Global Mobile Capex Index
Can Video on Demand Save IPTV?

Market Perspectives:
Global MNO Consolidation Counterbalanced by New Operators at Local Level
Does Vodafone’s WiMAX move mean a departure from LTE?
Convergence, Content, and Fiber to Drive Consolidation in France
 
Pyramid Telecom Roundup - Powered by ITI Digest!*

Verizon Wireless acquires assets of Ramcell
Verizon Wireless has purchased the operating assets of Ramcell in Kentucky and Oregon, which will increase Verizon Wireless' presence in southeast Kentucky and expand the company's network footprint in western Oregon. Financial terms were not disclosed.
Read the full article in ITI Digest


Brightstar and InPhonic to form strategic alliance
Brightstar and InPhonic expect to sign a definitive agreement with respect to a strategic alliance in the third quarter of 2007. Brightstar is a global provider of customised distribution and supply chain solutions for the wireless industry, while InPhonic is an online seller of wireless services and products.
Read the full article in ITI Digest


Neotel to land SEACOM cable in South Africa
In order to address the growing demand for international bandwidth in South Africa, Neotel (Pty) Ltd has signed a cable development agreement with SEACOM for landing a new, private-equity funded international cable in South Africa.
Read the full article in ITI Digest
 
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