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February 27, 2009
Mobile markets in Central Asia — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — are growing fast: From 2006 to 2008, the number of mobile subscriptions in the region grew by 22m, while penetration almost tripled. Nonetheless, more than half of this region’s 60m-strong population doesn’t use mobile telephony, which suggests that we’ll see more organic growth in subscriptions over the next five years. The region has all the right conditions for mobile growth: a large population, rudimentary fixed infrastructure, low voice and Internet penetration and, most importantly, the presence of a number of experienced multinational players — MTS, VimpelCom, TeliaSonera and MegaFon. In our recent Telecom Insider, Emerging Mobile Markets of Central Asia, we found that mobile subscriptions in the region will grow at a 13% CAGR through 2013, resulting in 27m new subscriptions.
Major players’ regional offers featured on the respective websites (February 2009)
Source: Operators’ websites
Interestingly, some of the countries in Central Asia, such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, started developing 3G as early as 2005, ahead of Russia, which is home to the two largest regional players — MTS and VimpelCom. The poorest country in the region, Tajikistan, boasts all of four 3G networks. The reason behind this is not a huge demand for infotainment services or video calling but rather a notable mobile broadband opportunity. The region has some of the lowest Internet penetration rates in the world. For instance, in Uzbekistan, the most populous country, Internet penetration stands at slightly more than 8%, while in Turkmenistan, it’s a mere 0.5%. Thus the introduction of 3G in infrastructure-poor Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan means that wireless or mobile broadband might be the only Internet some customers will ever know.
The main obstacle in the way of the “3G-ization” of the region is a low level of income. Private consumption per head in 2008 was close to US$500 in most of the Central Asian countries, which naturally translated into low ARPS. Nonetheless, thanks to the leading operators’ extensive experience in the low-ARPS countries and due to the massive increase in subscriptions in the region, total mobile services revenue will grow at an 8% CAGR in US dollar terms — reaching $4.6bn in 2013.
— Bakhyt Weeks, Analyst, EMEA
Related Content:
Emerging Mobile Markets of Central Asia: The Game Is On
Telecom Insider published February 2009
The Central Asian markets offer an outstanding organic mobile growth opportunity: Over the next five years, we project that mobile subscriptions in the region will grow at a 13% CAGR, resulting in 27m new subscriptions. This Telecom Insider examines the growth potential of these mobile markets in light of the current economic environment, competitive situation, regulations and adoption of new technologies. It contains case studies of five mobile markets: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Global Fixed and Mobile Broadband Outlook: The Transformation of Networks, Business Models and Growth Opportunities
Research Report published December 2008
This 79-page Report delivers Pyramid Research’s global projections of fixed and mobile broadband adoption and revenue trends, identifying the best practices, broadband technologies, services and markets that will drive future growth. It also examines the evolution of fixed and mobile broadband business models, convergence services and the role of IMS, with a focus on winning strategies for the three pillars of this new applications-focused framework — access, content and devices.
WiMAX in Emerging Markets: Operator Lessons in Strategy and Technology
Research Report published July 2008
Emerging markets accounted for over 60% of subscribers on WiMAX networks globally in 2007. In this report, Pyramid Research provides an in-depth assessment of commercial WiMAX networks and operator go-to-market strategies in emerging economies. We examine the competitive dynamics, end-user demand patterns and market potential of WiMAX, from adoption rates to spectrum licensing trends. Built around nine case studies of WiMAX operators in emerging markets, the report analyzes best practices and lessons learned about addressable customer segments, marketing strategies, product and pricing strategies, and distribution methods for WiMAX networks.
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