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March 6, 2009
We recently published a report stating that mobile operators in the Asia-Pacific region are likely to stick with their capex plans in 2009, despite the economic downturn. The report didn’t go into much detail about the commitments Thai operators, so we’ve decided to give out some numbers in light of recent announcements.
Thai incumbent mobile operator AIS announced that were it to receive a 3G license this year, it would spend Bt60bn (US$1.64bn) on 3G over three years, or $547m per year. Thai operators, which are eagerly waiting for 3G licenses, are hoping to secure the licenses late this year so that they can start commercial services in 2010.
AIS’s competitors have also put forward their 3G investment plans. Runner-up DTAC has set aside Bt12bn ($329m) for 2G network upgrades and pledged a larger amount for 3G capex. As for Thailand’s smallest mobile operator, True Move, which also recently released the iPhone 3G in the country, it says it is ready to invest Bt10bn ($274m) this year if it wins the license. Similarly, state-owned TOT plans to spend Bt3bn ($82.2m) this year to upgrade 500 of its 2G base stations in Bangkok to 3G base stations and roll out 3G services this year.
All in all, if the licenses are issued this year, we’re looking at about $1.2bn in planned capex for 3G in 2009. Actual 3G Capex, however, is likely to be less than these figures announced by the operators, since they are clearly a tactic aimed at getting the regulator to accelerate the license awards. Nevertheless, considering that Thailand’s mobile services generated slightly more than US$5bn in revenue in 2008, this is not a commitment that can be easily overlooked, especially when economic activity and employment rates could use a boost from increased infrastructure spending.
— Tae-Hyung Kim, Analyst
Related content:
Capex in Asia-Pacific: Driven by 3G in China, Spending to Rise Despite Global Downturn
Telecom Insider published February 2009
This report analyzes the drivers that make investing in infrastructure imperative for operators in Asia-Pacific, economic downturn or not. It puts the revenue generated in Asia into a global context and looks at the plans for future Capex in both developed and emerging markets in the region. The report also discusses vendors and which ones will be able to gain market share during these trying times. Three case studies, on NTT Docomo, China Mobile and Bharti Airtel, focus on the Capex plans of the main players in Japan, China and India, providing metrics such as Capex as a percentage of service revenue.
Asia Pacific Mobile Demand Forecast, Q4 2008
Forecasts published December 2008
Updated on a quarterly basis, our Mobile Demand Forecast products provide complete pictures of demand trends for15 geographical markets in Asia Pacific. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as GDP, mobile penetration, subscriptions (by operator, type of package, technology), ARPS and total mobile service revenue (data and voice). The Forecasts are based on extensive field research and use a consistent methodology across all markets, aiming to capture the total spending, from an end-user perspective, on mobile communication services in each market.
Communications Markets in Thailand
Country Intelligence Report published April 2008
The communications market in Thailand is expected to grow from $5.8bn in 2007 to $7.1bn by 2012, reflecting growing appetite for mobile data and broadband services. The Thai market is skewed toward mobile services, with an intense tariff war over the past two years helping to increase the mobile subscription penetration rate from 46% in 2005 to 80% in 2007. Fixed-mobile substitution will lead to a decrease in fixed voice. This Country Intelligence Report analyzes Thailand’s communications, media and technology industries, including key trends, regulatory pressures and the competitive landscape, making it an excellent complement to our Forecast products.
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