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April 27, 2009
Safaricom’s mobile money transfer service, M-PESA, continues to succeed — more than 40% of the Kenyan operator’s 13m subscribers use the service, launched in March 2007. There is no doubt that the service is having a positive impact on Safaricom’s business: Despite the entry of two additional mobile operators in the Kenyan market in the past couple of years, Safaricom still has more than 78% of subscribers.
Subscriber share by operator, 2006-2014

Source: Operators, Pyramid Research
With competition intensifying, the mobile banking and payments area in Kenya has seen a lot of activity in the first few months of 2009 alone. Our recent report looking into mobile payment services in Africa did predict that more sophisticated services would become available, but the pace of development in Kenya has been faster than expected.
First of all, Zain, the second largest operator, finally launched its mobile money service, Zap, following delays in receiving regulatory approval. The service is ambitious: It not only offers domestic money transfer, but also the ability to pay bills and send money to and from bank accounts. Moreover, it is integrated with Zain’s One Network, enabling international airtime top-ups and money transfers.
Orange Mobile and Econet Wireless, the two new arrivals, both recently announced that they will launch mobile payment services. By year-end 2008, the two operators had gained less than a 3% market share combined. More recently, Orange announced it had reached about 700,000 subscribers, but with very low ARPS of €2 (a level that even the CEO mentioned was ‘worrying a bit’), about half the market rate. Econet, the smallest operator, announced already last year that it would launch mobile payments services in partnership with Obopay, although its expansion plans have been set back by the global credit crunch. As yet there are no details about either of the operator’s services, but it appears such services are now a prerequisite for gaining a footprint in the market.
Similarly, the banks in Kenya have been hitting back. On one front they have made strong complaints that Safaricom has an unfair advantage (although it looks like little will come of this, as the government overall wants to encourage the development of mobile banking. The banks have also launched services of their own: Both Family Bank and Postbank recently launched services that let their clients access account details through SMS and buy airtime. Standard Bank and Equity Bank have launched similar services, adding the ability to pay bills and check foreign exchange rates.
Other announcements in Africa make clear the importance of mobile payments, such as MTN’s partnership with Fundamo and Zain’s with Oberthur Technologies, both of which are region-wide and suggest these operators will introduce such services across their footprints. Safaricom, meanwhile, is awaiting approval for an international money transfer service between Kenya and the UK and is also in discussions with utility providers to enable M-PESA users to pay their bills on their mobile phones.
— Jan ten Sythoff, Analyst at large
Related content:
Mobile Financial Services in Africa: The Business Case for Operators and Banks
Research Report published January 2009
The use of mobile devices to pay for goods and services has been held back in most markets, but mobile payments are having a more penetrating impact in poorer economies than in mature ones, with market dynamics that are starkly different, especially in Africa. In this context, new business models have emerged that are transforming the financial landscape in developing countries. This report reviews and analyzes mobile financial services offerings in African markets, looks at drivers and obstacles to mobile financial services, breaks down business models to assess their true bottom-line impact, and provides market projections based on intrinsic market dynamics.
Emerging Opportunity: Boom Times Ahead for Mobile Broadband in Africa & Middle East
Telecom Insider published April 2009
The launch of 3G services in much of Africa and the Middle East means that its Internet market is now on the brink of a similar makeover. We expect the subscriber total to increase at a CAGR of 33% to reach 32.2m by 2014, but mobile broadband will generate only a modest 5% of total mobile revenue regionally by 2014. This report looks at the use of mobile broadband as an Internet access technology for PCs, identifying the factors that affect adoption in markets across the region. It focuses on three key markets: South Africa, Morocco and Saudi Arabia.
Africa & Middle East Mobile Demand Forecast, Q1 2009
Forecasts published March 2009
Updated on a quarterly basis, our Mobile Demand Forecast products provide complete pictures of demand trends for 59 geographical markets in Africa & Middle East. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as GDP, mobile penetration, subscriptions (by operator, type of package, technology), ARPS and total mobile service revenue (data and voice). The Forecasts are based on extensive field research and use a consistent methodology across all markets, aiming to capture the total spending, from an end-user perspective, on mobile communication services in each market.
Mobile Advertising in Emerging Markets: Market Trends and Strategies for the Third Screen
Research Report published February 2009
Leading operators are pushing a variety of advertising methods, from sponsored messaging and alert services to more sophisticated content over mobile portals, and mobile advertising will markedly boost mobile data service revenue. This report looks at mobile advertising initiatives and the revenue potential in emerging markets, with a particular emphasis on Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Romania, Russia, South Africa and Turkey. We also put our findings in context by making comparisons with global trends and developed markets, such as the US and UK.
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