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May 29, 2009
While Capex cutbacks continue to be the norm in many parts of the world, mobile network operators in Asia-Pacific continue to announce aggressive plans for 3G buildouts — and not all the action is taking place in China (see our Insider, Capex in Asia-Pacific).
Digi, Malaysia’s third largest mobile operator and a recent recipient of a 3G license, announced this month that it has earmarked RM300-400m (US$95m-$125m) per year for 3G network rollouts. Digi’s CEO says that the operator will focus on expanding coverage and delivering high quality of service in an effort to distinguish itself from the two leading players, Maxis and Celcom, both of which have had 3G available since 2005.
3G service from Digi will initially be available only to PC and notebook computer subscribers; 3G service over traditional handsets will follow once target coverage levels are achieved.
Just south of the peninsula, Indonesia’s leading mobile operator Telkomsel announced that it will raise Capex this year by 25%, to $1.5bn, on the back of exploding subscriber additions. Just when operators in other markets are dropping their Capex levels to slightly more than 10% of revenue, Telkomsel’s announcement suggests that its Capex/revenue ratio will lie between 45- 50% this year, an astounding figure at any time, let alone in a year of economic crisis.
In the first quarter, Telkomsel increased its subscriber base by 6.8m, from 64.5m to 71.3m. This is almost twice 2008’s first quarter net addition of 3.5m, and considering that mobile penetration rate stood at just 58% last year, it seems Indonesians are not curbing their appetite for mobile services despite an expected 1.4% decline in real GDP.
As the third most populous country in the Asia-Pacific region, behind only China and India, we expect Indonesia to add more than 33m mobile subscribers this year, putting penetration at 71% (see Indonesia Mobile Operator KPI Forecast Q1 2009 ). Economic situation notwithstanding, user demand for mobile services continues to soar in Asia’s developing markets.
— Tae-Hyung Kim, Analyst
Related content:
North America Mobile Operator KPI Forecasts, Q1 2009
Forecasts published March 2009
Updated on a quarterly basis, our Mobile Operator Key Performance Indicators Forecast products provide a complete picture of wireline voice and data communications. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as subscription totals, market shares, net and gross additions, prepaid and postpaid subscriptions, business subscriptions, data ARPS, aggregate ARPS, prepaid and postpaid MOU, churn and total service revenue — all broken down for the mobile operators in the respective markets. We believe our Mobile Operator KPI Forecasts are superior because they capture granular data gathered through extensive field research and use a thorough methodology consistently applied to all markets.
Capex in Asia-Pacific: Driven by 3G in China, Spending to Rise Despite Global Downturn
Telecom Insider published February 2009
This report analyzes the drivers that make investing in infrastructure imperative for operators in Asia-Pacific, economic downturn or not. It puts the revenue generated in Asia into a global context and looks at the plans for future Capex in both developed and emerging markets in the region. The report also discusses vendors and which ones will be able to gain market share during these trying times. Three case studies, on NTT Docomo, China Mobile and Bharti Airtel, focus on the Capex plans of the main players in Japan, China and India, providing metrics such as Capex as a percentage of service revenue.
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