July 2, 2009
Last week France Telecom and Divona won a 15-year license to provide mobile and fixed services in Tunisia. The Divona/Orange-France Telecom joint venture, which competed with Turkcell and three unspecified local backers, presented the best technical offer as well as the winning bid of US$205.6m (TD257m). The license is technology neutral and open in terms of services and choice of infrastructure (fiber-optic, ADSL, WiMAX, CDMA) in order to market any service to fixed and mobile telecommunications. An additional fixed license will not be awarded until January 1, 2013.
Divona owns 51% of the venture, and France Telecom has the remaining 49%. Divona, an ISP that provides VSAT and WiMAX services to businesses, is controlled by Tunisian businessman Marouane Mabrouk, who also happens to be the son-in-law of Tunisia’s current president. Tunisian Communications Minister Haj Klai disclosed that the new entrant plans to invest $800m (TD1bn) on the network rollout.
The new entrant will start providing services in January 2010. It will compete against incumbent Tunisie Telecom and Orascom’s subsidiary Tunisiana, both having 4.3m mobile subscriptions. Competition between the two mobile providers is fierce: Subscription penetration of population at year-end 2008 reached 82.1%, and we estimate that it will grow to account for 103.1% penetration of population by 2014. In the recent Tunisia CIR, we project that the new entrant will gain 12.4% market share in terms of mobile subscriptions by 2014 (see exhibit), supported by its competitive advantage over the other operators since it will be the first mobile operator licensed to provide 3G services.
Mobile services competitive landscape, 2008-2014
Source: Pyramid Research, Mobile Forecast Q2 2009
Therefore, it will easily target the multimedia-hungry Tunisians, with mobile broadband and value-added 3G-based services.
— Sylwia Boguszewska, Senior Analyst
Communications Markets in Tunisia
Country Intelligence Report published June 2009
The Tunisian telecom market generated almost $2bn in service revenue in 2008, growing 8% year on year. We expect the telecom market to grow to $2.2bn by 2014. The fastest-growing significant market segments will be broadband Internet and mobile data. This Country Intelligence Report analyzes Tunisia’s communications, media and technology industries, including key trends, regulatory pressures and the competitive landscape, making it an excellent complement to our Forecast products.
Africa and Middle East Fixed Communications Forecasts, Q2 2009
Forecasts published June 2009
Our Fixed Communications Forecast products provide a complete picture of wireline voice and data communications in each of eight African and Middle Eastern markets. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as demographics and economic trends, penetration of broadband and narrowband lines, Internet users, business users, voice telephony lines, VoIP, PCs, IPTV and revenue. We believe our Fixed Communications Forecasts are superior because they capture granular data gathered through extensive field research and use a thorough methodology consistently applied to all markets.
Africa & Middle East Mobile Demand Forecast
Forecasts published quarterly
Our Mobile Demand Forecast products provide complete pictures of demand trends for 25 geographical markets in Africa & Middle East. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as GDP, mobile penetration, subscriptions (by operator, type of package, technology), ARPS and total mobile service revenue (data and voice). The Forecasts are based on extensive field research and use a consistent methodology across all markets, aiming to capture the total spending, from an end-user perspective, on mobile communication services in each market.
Mobile Financial Services in Africa: The Business Case for Operators and Banks
Research Report published January 2009
The use of mobile devices to pay for goods and services has been held back in most markets, but mobile payments are having a more penetrating impact in poorer economies than in mature ones, with market dynamics that are starkly different, especially in Africa. In this context, new business models have emerged that are transforming the financial landscape in developing countries. This report reviews and analyzes mobile financial services offerings in African markets, looks at drivers and obstacles to mobile financial services, breaks down business models to assess their true bottom-line impact, and provides market projections based on intrinsic market dynamics.