|
  
July 21, 2009
It was just last year, following seven years of a government-imposed ban, that Turkmens were suddenly allowed access to the Internet. In fact, the vast majority of Turkmenistan’s 4.8m inhabitants have never even used a Web browser, and in spite of the relatively high (in the context of Central Asia) fixed-line penetration of 10%, less than 0.2% of the population was subscribed to the Internet at the end of 2008.
Turkmens were then able to use dial-up, offered by incumbent Turmentelecom, and GRPS Internet, offered by Russian-owned MTS. According to Pyramid Research, because GRPS and fixed Internet started pretty much from the same point, about 20% of all Internet accounts in Turkmenistan are currently GPRS. Moreover, should the political climate toward Internet access remain favorable, Turkmens might even be able to enjoy 3G in the near future.
MTS, which holds more than 80% of the 1.1m strong Turkmen mobile market, launched GPRS service in May 2008. Already, about 85% of MTS’s network in Turkmenistan is based on EDGE/GPRS, which means at least rudimentary mobile Internet service is available to about 70% of the population (the network covers 80%). This service is proving to be very popular, not least due to the fact that you don’t have to wait ages to get it. Another advantage of GPRS is that it does not require a monthly fee and is priced competitively against dial-up. Earlier this year, MTS launched MTS-Connect, GPRS Internet for PCs and for high-end and business clients. 3G licenses may possibly be awarded this year, clearing the way for MTS to begin offering mobile broadband.
Meanwhile, people are signing up for Turkmentelecom’s dial-up service in droves, but there are long waiting lists and the process is tedious and bureaucratic. The cost of having a dial-up connection is also astounding: Not only is there a monthly fee of $5, there is an additional per-hour change of $0.50 — GDP per capita in Turkmenistan is less than $200 per month according to government figures. Pyramid Research estimates that by the end of 2009, there will be only 13,200 fixed Internet accounts and 127,000 users in the country. Although there are now tens of Internet cafés scattered across the largest cities in Turkmenistan, their number still is minuscule compared with demand, and the prices, at $1-2 per hour, are extortionate. In addition, there is strict censorship, and users need to register their passports to use a cafe.
Source: Pyramid Research, Operators
It might seem like MTS got dealt the winning hand, but before we conclude there is a clear case for mobile Internet/broadband in Turkmenistan and that the incumbent poses no significant threat, there are certain political risks and realities to consider.
The history of the Internet in this country is short but rough. The former president, a dictator known as Turkmenbashi (the Father of all Turkmens), shut down Internet service for the entire country in 2000 by removing all ISP licenses without any warning. The service did not resume until well after his death. The new president, who is also effectively a dictator, has just slightly lifted the Internet barrier, but there is still zero visibility into what comes next. Censorship is strict, and the government clearly wants to keep taps on the Internet. The future (including the fate of 3G licenses) will depend not only on operators’ plans and marketing strategies but more so on how far the government is willing to let go.
— Bakhyt Weeks, Analyst, EMEA
Related content:
Central & Eastern Europe Mobile Operator KPI Forecasts
Forecasts published quarterly
Our Mobile Operator Key Performance Indicators Forecast products provide a complete picture of wireline voice and data communications in each of eight Central and Eastern European markets. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as subscription totals, market shares, net and gross additions, prepaid and postpaid subscriptions, business subscriptions, data ARPS, aggregate ARPS, prepaid and postpaid MOU, churn and total service revenue — all broken down for the mobile operators in the respective markets. We believe our Mobile Operator KPI Forecasts are superior because they capture granular data gathered through extensive field research and use a thorough methodology consistently applied to all markets.
Central & Eastern Europe Mobile Demand Forecast
Forecasts published quarterly
Our Mobile Demand Forecast products provide complete pictures of demand trends for eight geographical markets in Central & Eastern Europe. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as GDP, mobile penetration, subscriptions (by operator, type of package, technology), ARPS and total mobile service revenue (data and voice). The Forecasts are based on extensive field research and use a consistent methodology across all markets, aiming to capture the total spending, from an end-user perspective, on mobile communication services in each market.
Mobile Broadband for the Masses: The Case for Bundled Netbooks
Research Report published May 2009
The netbook is a key catalyst of the changes reshaping the broadband access and mobile computing markets. This report analyzes the business cases behind bundling netbooks with broadband access for both operators and OEMs, discusses key performance indicators delivered by those operators that have embraced the use of netbooks, and assesses the value they have been able to extract from netbook sales. In Europe and the US, these operators include Orange, TMN, T-Mobile and Vodafone. We also look at early examples of netbook bundles targeting students and examine the potential for netbook bundle sales in the markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
|
Archive
