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November 6, 2009
It’s now unlikely 3G auctions will take place this year in Thailand — the regulator recently hinted it could take as long as two months just to prepare the bidding documents after the second public hearing November 12.
But not every piece of news related to 3G auctions in Thailand has been bad this week. In our last blog on Thailand’s 3G auctions, we said that considering how much political influence was at work, a middle ground was likely to be found between the government-owned and private operators, benefiting both.
The chief executive of Thailand’s privately owned mobile incumbent AIS recently shared his plans, which would achieve just that. Here’s the gist of the proposal:
- AIS will calculate the amount it owes in concessions for the next six years, until the concession is scheduled to end in 2015, and convert it into shares that government-owned TOT will hold.
- AIS may also share 3G service revenue with TOT.
Here are some of the benefits AIS and TOT will see from such an agreement:
- AIS could lower its level of foreign ownership, which has been the target of attack.
- AIS would be able to stop sharing revenue before 2015.
- TOT would be able to have a significant stake of AIS and earn dividends, providing a revenue stream.
- TOT, while having a say, could leave the 3G business to the private operators, which have much more experience and knowledge of the market.
Although there will be much pulling and pushing from both parties before they can agree on the details of the terms, we believe that AIS is heading in the right direction.
— Tae-Hyung Kim, Analyst
Related resources:
Asia-Pacific Mobile Demand Forecast
Forecasts published quarterly
Our Mobile Demand Forecast products provide complete pictures of demand trends for 15 geographical markets in Asia Pacific. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as GDP, mobile penetration, subscriptions (by operator, type of package, technology), ARPS and total mobile service revenue (data and voice). The Forecasts are based on extensive field research and use a consistent methodology across all markets, aiming to capture the total spending, from an end-user perspective, on mobile communication services in each market.
Thailand: Political Woes Stunt 3G Development
Country Intelligence Report published September 2009
The Thai telecom market generated $8.1bn in service revenue in 2008 but will contract by 1% in 2009. Pyramid Research expects growth to resume in 2010, with roughly half a billion dollars being added to the telecom market each year. The main growth engines will be fixed and mobile broadband services. The regulator has yet to issue 3G or WiMAX licenses, but both fixed and mobile operators are preparing to meet broadband demand. This Country Intelligence Report analyzes Thailand’s communications, media and technology industries, including key trends, regulatory pressures and the competitive landscape, making it an excellent complement to our Forecast products.
Mobile Gaming in Emerging Markets: Five-Year Forecast and Impact Analysis
Research Report published July 2009
Mobile gaming is enjoying solid growth, from about 55m gamers in 2005 to about 183m in 2008. Besides technological improvement and business-level innovation — the iPhone App Store is revolutionizing the industry — mobile adoption also spurs growth. Emerging markets contribute heavily. This report analyzes mobile videogaming markets in emerging economies, examining mobile gaming-specific metrics, market enablers, adoption barriers, trends and opportunities. It forecasts market growth and looks at interesting business models and initiatives. Included are in-depth country profiles of eight emerging markets: Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Nigeria, Poland, Russia and South Africa. Watch video highlights from the report.
LTE’s Five-Year Global Forecast: Poised to Grow Faster than 3G
Telecom Insider published May 2009
It took nearly six years for UMTS/HSPA to reach 100m subscriptions, but we estimate LTE will take just over four years to reach the same milestone. The number of LTE subscriptions worldwide will grow at a CAGR of 404% from 2010 to 2014 and reach 136m subscriptions by year-end 2014. This Telecom Insider identifies the main technical and business drivers as well as the challenges for the LTE platform and analyzes its market opportunity in comparison with earlier mobile technologies in their first few years of commercialization. The report provides Pyramid Research’s five-year outlook on LTE adoption and examines six of the largest vendors worldwide.
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