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July 19, 2010
The gold rush for the African undersea bandwidth continued this month as the first phase of Main 1 went active and Glo1 finished its testing phase in West Africa. This adds to the developments on the east coast, where Seacom and TEAMS will soon be joined by EASSy.
Overall, we believe that these new undersea cables will more than double the broadband penetration rate in Africa between 2010 and 2015, while associated revenue will double in the same period.
However, African telecom markets still need much improvement if the network operators are to enjoy this rising tide of supply to its fullest. In particular, three things need to take place:
- Terrestrial networks must accompany the supply of bandwidth of undersea cables. Without last-mile access and connection to strong terrestrial backbones, broadband adoption and revenue have limited room for growth. With more reliance on wireless networks, we expect last-mile access to be driven in the short run by WiMAX technologies and data cards/modems.
- Competition among undersea cable providers is vital for the creation of more flexible, tiered pricing strategies. Shorter commitment durations and smaller capacities for purchase will allow smaller operators to grow without the burdens of buying more bandwidth than they need and match supply more accurately with demand. Offers announced by EASSy appear to be a move in this direction.
- Data-centric devices like laptops and netbooks are needed disseminate to exploit the new international bandwidth. Subsidies and removal of tax loads on devices can help the dissemination of data centric devices considerably. With more reliance on wireless networks, we anticipate laptops to increase faster than desktops at a CAGR of 15% between 2010 and 2015 in Africa. In 2015, total PC penetration will reach 15% of households.
For more details, see my Insider New Undersea Cables Help Boost African Broadband Prospects.
— Kerem Arsal, Analyst, EMEA
Related resources:
Africa & Middle East Mobile Data Forecasts
Forecasts published quarterly
Our Mobile Handset Forecast products provide a complete picture of handset sell-through in each of Israel, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as total handset sales, handset sales by network technology, new handset sales (by technology, by technology generation, by feature set), smartphone handset sales, vendor market share and handset ASP. We believe our Handset Forecasts are superior because they capture sell-through (units sold to end users) rather than unit shipments (sales from manufacturers to distributors) and rely heavily on our Mobile Demand Forecasts. Moreover, they are based on extensive field research, and a consistent methodology that is applied to all markets. Data from these Forecasts is available online for subscribers to our Data Tracker service.
Africa & Middle East Fixed Communications Forecasts
Forecasts published quarterly
Our Fixed Communications Forecast products provide a complete picture of wireline voice and data communications in each of eight African and Middle Eastern markets. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as demographics and economic trends, penetration of broadband and narrowband lines, Internet users, business users, voice telephony lines, VoIP, PCs, IPTV and revenue. We believe our Fixed Communications Forecasts are superior because they capture granular data gathered through extensive field research and use a thorough methodology consistently applied to all markets. Data from these Forecasts is available online for subscribers to our Data Tracker service.
Undersea Cables to Drive an African Broadband Boom
Telecom Insider published August 2009
The 12 new cables to be launched between 2009 and 2011 will increase Africa’s total international bandwidth from about 6Tbps to as much as 34Tbps and will reduce the number of coastal countries without any cable access from 19 to one. We forecast that total broadband adoption in Africa will increase at a CAGR of 28% from 2009 to 2013, as increased competition in the international bandwidth market brings down prices and as the new cables support the corresponding increase in demand. Former monopolists will have to compensate for lower wholesale revenue by expanding their subscriber bases among both ISPs and end users, while new entrants will seek to gain market share without straying into dangerous hypercompetition.
Africa & the Middle East Mobile Handset Forecasts
Forecasts published quarterly
Our Mobile Handset Forecast products provide a complete picture of handset sell-through in each of Israel, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey. The Excel output includes five years of historical data and five years of market projections for metrics such as total handset sales, handset sales by network technology, new handset sales (by technology, by technology generation, by feature set), smartphone handset sales, vendor market share and handset ASP. We believe our Handset Forecasts are superior because they capture sell-through (units sold to end users) rather than unit shipments (sales from manufacturers to distributors) and rely heavily on our Mobile Demand Forecasts. Moreover, they are based on extensive field research, and a consistent methodology that is applied to all markets. Data from these Forecasts is available online for subscribers to our Data Tracker service.
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