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The Algerian telecom market generated $4.5bn in service revenue in 2009, and we expect it to grow to $6.7bn by 2014, a CAGR of 8.3%. We believed that increased liberalization of the fixed sector, and the introduction of 3G on the mobile side, would lead to much faster revenue growth, but neither of these regulatory changes appear to have happened. Nevertheless, fixed broadband and mobile data will be the main drivers of revenue growth over the forecast period, constituting 65% of the total increase in revenue. Disputes over interconnection tariffs between Algerie Telecom and EEPAD caused disruptions in Internet service in 2009, but the sector still generated $150m in 2009. Looking forward we expect the revenue from the service to grow to $736m, a CAGR of 37.5%.
Mobile voice will continue to produce the bulk of revenue, reaching $2.65bn in 2009, 59% of total revenue. We anticipate it will generate almost $3.6bn in 2014, a CAGR of 5.7%. Circuit-switched voice revenue will decrease by 11% from $1.16bn in 2009 to $1.03bn in 2014; it will remain a crucial revenue generator owing to its weight in the overall Algerian communications market.
Executive Summary
Market and Competitor Overview
Algeria in a Regional Context
Economic, Demographic and Political Context
Regulatory Environment
Demand Profile
Service Evolution
Competitive Landscape
Major Market Players
Segment Analysis
Mobile Services
Fixed Services
Identifying Opportunities
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Author: Deniss Radcenko
Publication Date: March 2010
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