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After several years of double-digit growth, China’s telecom services market experienced a more modest 8.4% growth rate in 2009. The drop suggests that China is not immune to the effects of the global economic crisis, market maturation trends and the impact of rising competition on ARPS levels. Pyramid Research expects service revenue growth to pick up slightly in 2010, to 8.7%, mostly as a result of rising adoption of fixed and mobile data plans. Mobile data, the second-largest revenue generator after mobile voice, will see service revenues increase at a CAGR of 14.0% between 2010 and 2015, from $20.8bn to $49.4bn.
Broadband Internet service revenue will grow at a CAGR of 12.0% during the same period, and by 2012 it will eclipse fixed circuit-switched voice to become the largest revenue generator in the fixed market. Although VoIP will have the highest CAGR from 2010 to 2015, its market size is limited to 2% of the entire telecom services market. Total fixed circuit-switched revenue continues to decline due to fixed-to-mobile substitution. We expect this trend to continue throughout the forecast period. Even when operators try to stem substitution through bundling and discounts, the convenience and the affordability of mobile devices make them a preferred option for Chinese consumers.
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Publication Date: July 2010
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