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The Chinese telecom market generated $110bn in 2008, up 16% from 2007 levels. Going forward, we expect total telecommunications services revenue in China to increase at a CAGR of 8.8% between 2009 and 2014, reaching $186.6bn. While we expect the traditional fixed-line business to decline from $21bn in 2009 to $16.7bn in 2014, the loss will be more than compensated for by growth in the mobile business. Due to accelerating fixed-to-mobile substitution, China's fixed communications market experienced its first contraction in overall lines in service in 2008. Lower mobile tariffs, handset prices and close to 100% population network coverage all contribute to the substitution trend. China's mobile voice sector will continue to bring in the highest revenue, jumping from $61.9bn in 2008 to $69.7bn in 2009, and will keep growing at a CAGR of 7.6% from 2009 to 2014, ending the forecast period with $100.4bn in revenue. Mobile data, the third-largest revenue stream in 2008 behind mobile voice and fixed circuit-switched voice, will move up one position by 2010 as 3G services spur more usage of datacards and mobile applications in China.
Executive Summary
Market and Competitor Overview
China in a Regional Context
Economic, Demographic and Political Context
Regulatory Environment
Demand Profile
Service Evolution
Competitive Landscape
Major Market Players
Segment Analysis
Mobile Services
Fixed Services
Pay-TV
Convergence
Identifying Opportunities
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Publication Date: June 2009
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