After a 2% decline in local currency in 2010, we expect the Polish market to grow 1.7% year-on-year and generate Zl 40.2bn ($14bn) in service revenue. Looking ahead, we project that the market will grow at a 2.7% CAGR (3.5% CAGR in USD), exhibiting a cumulative revenue opportunity of Zl 255bn ($89bn) in the 2011–2016 period. This growth will be propelled by growth in the data segment: mobile data (12% local currency CAGR) and broadband (7.9% CAGR), impelled by increasing popularity and availability of smartphones, tablets and other connected devices, as well as LTE and HSPA+ network proliferation, and growing NGN rollouts, partially subsidized by the EC.
The telecom market has gone into another evolution stage, with more cooperation between former rivals ― including UPC’s acquisition of Aster, Zygmunt Solorz-Żak’s purchase of Polkomtel (Plus), Netia’s acquisition of Dialog and Crowley (the transaction is subject to UOKiK approval), Cyfrowy Polsat acquiring Info-TV-FM, TP Group’s partnership with TVN Group, and Centertel (Orange) and PTC’s (T-Mobile/Era) establishment of a joint venture company for shared network operation. We expect further mergers and acquisitions with the structure of the telecom and media markets evolving substantially in the medium term.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Market and Competitor Overview
Poland in a regional context
Economic, demographic and political context
Regulatory environment
Demand profile
Service evolution
Competitive landscape
Major market players
Segment analysis
Mobile services
Fixed services
Pay-TV
Identifying Opportunities
The Poland Intelligence Report is the industry’s best available analysis on market trends, regulatory environments, and competitive dynamics, providing detailed competitive analysis on fixed and mobile sectors, tracking market adoption of new technologies and services such as WiMAX, IPTV, and VoIP.
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