Poland is one of the most attractive markets in Central and Eastern Europe, being the second largest in the region after Russia: in 2013 it generated service revenue of $11.5bn, down 2.0% from 2012. That decline was due to a drop in revenue from voice services, as fixed-to-mobile substitution continued to reduce fixed voice revenue and as lower mobile termination rates affected mobile revenue. Over the next five years, however, we expect the market to grow at a CAGR of 3.86%, with mobile data being the fastest growing segment of the market, driven by deployments of LTE.
The number of mobile subscriptions in Poland at the end of 2013 exceeded 56m, which equals a penetration rate of 146% of the population. Over the next five years, we expect the subscription total to grow at a CAGR of 2.8%, reaching more than 64m, for a penetration rate of 169%. This growth will be driven by the use of multiple SIM cards, which is due to intensifying mobile competition and an increase in types of services consumed, such as M2M. The Polish fixed-line narrowband segment, however, continues to decline: by the end of 2013, the penetration rate reached 16.3% of the population. The main reason for this trend is the decline in PSTN lines as households become mobile-only. We thus expect PSTN’s share of total access lines to continue to shrink.
Fixed and mobile data services will continue to grow, generating cumulative service revenue of $36.9bn over the next five years. Data growth will not only compensate for the loss of voice service revenue but will also turn total telecom revenue around, to a CAGR of 3.3% between 2013 and 2018. With pay-TV revenue, the rate will be 3.9% over the same period.
Table of Contents
Market and Competitor Overview
Poland in a regional context
Economic, demographic and political context
Major market players
The Poland Intelligence Report is the industry’s best available analysis on market trends, regulatory environments, and competitive dynamics, providing detailed competitive analysis of the mobile sector and tracking market adoption of new technologies and services.
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