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Despite the unfavorable macroeconomic environment in 2009, Russia’s telecom market still grew 11% year-on-year, generating Rb1.1trn ($33.9bn). The main drivers were the strong growth seen in the data segments in both fixed and mobile markets and, uncharacteristically for many other countries in the region, healthy growth in circuit-switched revenue. Going forward, the Russian telecom market will grow at a CAGR of 7.1% (in Rb), representing a cumulative revenue opportunity of Rb8.2trn ($238.6bn) in the 2009-2014 period.
Mobile voice will continue to be the dominant revenue stream. However, as data cards and other advanced data services see stronger uptake, mobile data’s share of total revenue will grow from 9.5% or $3.2bn in 2009 to 13.5% or $5.8bn in 2014. With hundreds of thousands of Russians still waiting to receive a circuit-switched telephone line, fixed circuit-switched voice will continue to grow at a relatively fast pace, representing a five-year cumulative revenue opportunity of $53.6bn. Driven by increasing fixed broadband adoption, we forecast fixed VoIP to be the fastest growing revenue stream between 2009 and 2014, with a CAGR of 33.5%, followed by IPTV with a CAGR of 27%.
Executive Summary
Market and Competitor Overview
Russia in a Regional Context
Economic, Demographic and Political Context
Regulatory Environment
Demand Profile
Service Evolution
Competitive Landscape
Major Market Players
Segment Analysis
Mobile Services
Fixed Services
Pay-TV
Convergence
Identifying Opportunities
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Author: Deniss Radcenko
Publication Date: March 2010
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