The Russian telecom market generated Rb1.249trn ($43.4bn) in service revenue in 2011, a 5.6% increase year-on-year in local currency terms. The Russian market exhibits an attractive revenue-generating potential: It will grow at a CAGR of 5.7% in US dollar terms in the next five years, reaching $57.2bn (Rb1.572trn) in 2016.
Fixed voice revenue continued to decline in 2011, exhibiting a 2.4% y-o-y decrease in local currency terms, a trend that started in 2009. We expect fixed-mobile substitution and the large size of the country, which prohibits network rollout in more remote areas, to put pressure on this revenue segment. We expect voice revenues to decline at a CAGR of -1.0% in local terms (CAGR -0.1% in US terms) from Rb295bn ($$10.2bn) in 2011 to Rb280bn ($10.2bn) in 2016. However, voice will remain a major revenue source, accounting for 60% of the total telecom service revenue.
Also, data will continue to seize the market and its share will increase from 25% to 35%, growing from Rb308.7bn ($10.7bn) to Rb566.5bn ($20.6bn) between 2011-2016, as the operators continue to invest in next-generation networks such as FTTB and LTE. Mobile data growth will be eye-catching at a CAGR of 13.5% in local terms, growing from Rb178.5bn ($6.2bn) to Rb336.6bn ($12.2bn) over the forecast period driven by LTE and 3G connectivity and smartphone data consumption.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Market and Competitor Overview
Russia in a regional context
Economic, demographic and political context
Regulatory environment
Demand profile
Service evolution
Competitive landscape
Major market players
Segment analysis
Mobile services
Fixed services
Pay-TV
Convergence
Identifying Opportunities
The Russia Intelligence Report is the industry’s best available analysis on market trends, regulatory environments, and competitive dynamics, providing detailed competitive analysis on fixed and mobile sectors, tracking market adoption of new technologies and services such as WiMAX, IPTV, and VoIP.
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