The Ugandan telecommunications sector generated service revenue of US$858m in 2013. Pyramid Research expects growth at a CAGR of 7.3% over the next five years, and in 2018 the market will generate about $1.2bn in revenue. Data usage in the mobile sector should increase at a CAGR of 24.1% and will be the main growth driver. We expect the share of voice revenue to decline both for mobile and fixed services. Mobile money continues to be a growing industry, and the Bank of Uganda’s new mobile money guidelines on technical standards came into effect on October 1, 2013.
Subscriptions to 3G networks will continue to grow steadily, and we expect 35.0% of all subscriptions to use the technology by 2018. Although Smile, MTN and Orange launched LTE services over the course of 2013, in February 2014, none of the LTE coverage expanded beyond greater Kampala. As a result, we do not expect 4G adoption to accelerate immediately; plans are in place, however, to expand 4G coverage significantly, and we expect an increase in users to 1.8m by 2018. Airtel, through its acquisition of Warid’s telecom operations, had an estimated 7.7m subscriptions at the end of 2013, or 39.4% of the mobile market.
Fixed-line Internet user penetration remains low at 12.3%, leaving significant growth potential, which operators are looking to take advantage of. We expect strong growth in broadband connections.
Table of Contents Executive Summary
Market and Competitor Overview
Uganda in a Global Context
Economic, Demographic and Political Context
CAPEX Opportunity Highlights
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