We expect the Ugandan telecommunications sector to grow at a CAGR of 10.2% between 2011 and 2016 to reach $1.23bn, thanks to favorable developments in both the mobile and fixed segments. On the mobile side, the low penetration level along with the presence of seven mobile operators will generate increasing voice and data revenue. However, the entry of Airtel and the aggressive declines in voice tariffs will translate to a higher reliance on data revenue in the future. The growth of data revenue from $74m in 2011 to $283m in 2016 will be supported by network upgrades and movement to 3G by operators other than MTN, UTL and Orange.
In the fixed segment, the Ugandan market has recently become highly active, with a rising number of broadband providers that are eagerly anticipating growth thanks to the new connections to the undersea cables coming from the Eastern coast of Africa and thus the increased affordability of these services. We believe that the positive signals that are emerging in other Eastern African countries, such as Kenya and Tanzania, will trickle to Uganda throughout our forecast period. Thus, with a combination of expansion of access and affordability, we project fixed broadband revenue to comprise 15.9% of the sector’s revenue in Uganda by 2016.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Market and Competitor Overview
Uganda in a regional context
Economic, demographic and political context
Regulatory environment
Demand profile
Service evolution
Competitive landscape
Major market players
Segment analysis
Mobile services
Fixed services
Identifying Opportunities
The Uganda Intelligence Report is the industry’s best available analysis on market trends, regulatory environments, and competitive dynamics, providing detailed competitive analysis on fixed and mobile sectors, tracking market adoption of new technologies and services such as WiMAX, IPTV, and VoIP.
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