The Ugandan telecom market will end 2012 with $858m (UGX2.1trn) in service revenue. The mobile segment in Uganda is highly competitive and can even be considered overcrowded, with seven active MNOs. The regulator, despite the natural inclination of the operators to compete on price in such a low-income market, aimed for further competitiveness in pursuit of higher mobile penetration rates by cutting interconnection rates. Followed temporarily by what approximated “irrational competition,” these cuts resulted in mobile voice revenue demonstrating only a 0.3% year-on-year growth in 2012 in local terms.
Looking forward, we expect mobile voice service revenue to decline from $613m (UGX1.45trn) in 2012 to $576m (UGX1.4trn) in 2017, in an otherwise optimistic market. We identify the main growth drivers to be fixed data services with a CAGR of 23% and mobile data with a CAGR of 27.1%, amounting to a cumulative revenue opportunity of $1.9bn (UGX4.7bn) between 2012 and 2017. Fixed broadband services will be boosted by the country’s connection to an alternative undersea cable via Tanzania, which will also enable network expansion. On the mobile side, operators already recorded an increased demand for data services and started upgrading their network to offer 3G+ download speeds.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Market and Competitor Overview
Uganda in a regional context
Economic, demographic and political context
Regulatory environment
Demand profile
Service evolution
Competitive landscape
Major market players
Segment analysis
Mobile services
Fixed services
Identifying Opportunities
The Uganda Intelligence Report is the industry’s best available analysis on market trends, regulatory environments, and competitive dynamics, providing detailed competitive analysis on fixed and mobile sectors, tracking market adoption of new technologies and services such as WiMAX, IPTV, and VoIP.
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