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The Ukrainian telecom market generated $7.0bn in service revenue in 2008. In 2009, we expect it to slide to $5.1bn mainly due to the fact that the Ukrainian hryvnia lost more than 40% of its value against the US dollar in 2008-2009. We expect that in terms of local currency, Ukraine’s telecom market will show a slight growth mainly boosted by fixed and mobile broadband developments. We estimate that the market will fully recover, in terms of US dollars, in 2014 when it will be worth $7.4bn. Mobile voice is currently the largest revenue segment and is expected to remain so through 2014. At the same time, mobile data’s share of total revenue will grow from 8.3% in 2008 to 15.1% in 2014 — from $0.6bn to $1.1bn. Another emerging sector is fixed broadband — its share will grow from 4.8% in 2008 ($0.3bn) to 13.2% ($1.0bn) in 2014. Fixed VoIP and IPTV will grow at astonishing rates, but their impact on total service revenue will be minimal due to their infrastructural constraints and the small scale of rollout.
Executive Summary
Market and Competitor Overview
Ukraine in a Regional Context
Economic, Demographic and Political Context
Regulatory Environment
Demand Profile
Service Evolution
Competitive Landscape
Major Market Players
Segment Analysis
Mobile Services
Fixed Services
Pay-TV
Identifying Opportunities
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Author: Bakhyt Weeks
Publication Date: October 2009
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