The global economic hardships of 2009 are negatively affecting the handset market worldwide. For Q1 2009, the leading handset manufacturers reported a 14% decline in their global sales compared with the year-earlier period. We expect this trend to continue throughout 2009 but to a lesser degree, with global sales of new handset units declining by 9% from 2008.
Despite the decline in new handset sales globally in Q1 2009 compared with Q1 2008, Africa and the Middle East (AME) still offers tremendous opportunities for vendors. The main driver is continued strong growth in mobile services subscriptions, which is shielding the region from substantial declines in handset sales. Although we expect global sales of new handsets to decline in 2009, we forecast sales of new handsets in AME to at least match those recorded in 2008. The region’s size as the second-largest handset market will also help shelter vendors from the wide fluctuations seen in other regions, such as Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, AME’s diversified demand will generate growth for handsets at virtually all price points due to the large base of low-income subscribers and the fast growth in smartphone and 3G handset demand.
In the midst of the tough conditions facing handset vendors, AME — a region in which we include Africa, the Gulf, Iran, Turkey and the Levant — emerges as a bright spot. This report analyzes the characteristics that distinguish the AME handset market from other regions and identifies unique opportunities for handset vendors, retailers and operators to exploit. The report also looks in more detail at two of the region’s largest handset markets, Nigeria and Turkey, and highlights very specific trends in categorically different markets.
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