Bulgaria Intelligence Report
Bulgaria: Fixed and Mobile Broadband Prospects Start to Rise

The Bulgarian telecom market generated Lv3.2bn ($2.2bn) in service revenue in 2009, a 5.3% decline in dollar terms compared to 2008, but just -0.1% in local currency. Going forward, the market will grow at CAGR of 4.8% (3.1% in local currency terms) over the next five years, to reach $2.8bn (Lv3.8bn ) in 2015. We expect broadband Internet and mobile data services to be the most dynamic segments of the market. Accompanying broadband adoption growth, IPTV and VoIP will grow at a double-digit CAGR of 46.4% and 38.7%, respectively, between 2010 and 2015. As the effect of MTR-focused EU regulation takes hold, operators will focus more on the mobile data segment, which we expect to grow at a CAGR of 20.8%.

Even though mobile voice will grow at a CAGR of only 0.2% in local currency, it still accounts for the majority of revenue and will continue to do so throughout the rest of the forecast period. Mobile voice presents a $8.7bn (Lv12.0bn) cumulative revenue opportunity in the same period. Dial-up Internet and fixed circuit-switched voice are two segments that will experience negative growth, with CAGR rates of -35.1% and -9.8% in the same period. This is due mainly to fixed-to-mobile substitution, as well as increased broadband penetration and growing usage of voice-over-IP (VoIP).

Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Market and Competitor Overview
   Bulgaria in a regional context
   Economic, demographic and political context
   Regulatory environment
   Demand profile
   Service evolution
   Competitive landscape
   Major market players
Segment analysis
   Mobile services
   Fixed services
Identifying Opportunities

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Author: Ewa Romaniuk-Calkowska, Sylwia Boguszewska

Publication Date: August 2010